On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
The Influence of Natural Climate Variability on Tropical Cyclones, and Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity
In the first part of this chapter, we give a review of the relationship of climate and tropical cyclones on various time scales, from intra-seasonal to decadal. The response of tropical cyclone activity to natural modes of variability, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Madden Julian Oscillation in various regions of the world are discussed. Genesis location, track types and intensity...
متن کاملFeasibility study for downscaling seasonal tropical cyclone activity using the NCEP regional spectral model
The potential use of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) for downscaling seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity was analyzed here. The NCEP RSM with horizontal resolution of 50 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature (SST) over the western Nort...
متن کاملExperimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has been issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts for several ocean basins since early 2003. In this paper the method used to obtain these forecasts is described and the forecast performance is evaluated. The forecasts are based on tropical cyclone–like features detected and tracked in a low-resolution c...
متن کاملTropical cyclone track forecasting techniques: A review
Delivering accurate cyclone forecasts in time is of key importance when it comes to saving human lives and reducing economic loss. Difficulties arise because the geographical and climatological characteristics of the various cyclone formation basins are not similar, which entails that a single forecasting technique cannot yield reliable performance in all ocean basins. For this reason, global f...
متن کاملSystematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting
The long-term goals of this project, which is being pursued in collaboration with R. L. Elsberry and M. A. Boothe, are to improve not only the quantitative accuracy of official tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, but also the qualitative meteorological utility of those forecasts. Needed improvements in the accuracy of official TC track forecasts include: (i) reducing the severity and frequen...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Climate
سال: 2014
ISSN: 0894-8755,1520-0442
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00158.1